BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-winged Blackbird In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyWetland birds

Red-winged Blackbird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has declined: down 26% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-26%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley. See the full index history below.

Red-winged Blackbird In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 23% by 2030 — from 131 in 2025 to a central estimate of 160 (95% range 62–259). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
160Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
62–25995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 23% by 2030 — from 131 in 2025 to a central estimate of 160 (95% range 62–259). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
202616668265
202716566263
202816365262
202916263260
203016062259

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LafeARKANSAS8082022
Hickory RidgeARKANSAS7762022
MaynardARKANSAS5892025
UlmARKANSAS5822025
PawpawTENNESSEE5652012
Augusta 2ARKANSAS5502016
West TylerARKANSAS5081984
KelsoARKANSAS4372016
HarrisburgARKANSAS4222019
HaytiMISSOURI3872021
WhittonARKANSAS3731991
AugustaARKANSAS3522001
CommerceMISSISSIPPI2961993
BrousvilleLOUISIANA2862025
WilsonARKANSAS2702025
RayvilleLOUISIANA2622008
TransylvaniaLOUISIANA2472025
DeventerMISSOURI2272025
TchulaMISSISSIPPI2061975
BlodgettMISSOURI1872025
Pawpaw 2TENNESSEE1742025
DellARKANSAS1582025
Dahomey NwrMISSISSIPPI1522025
Rayville 2LOUISIANA1432025
River RoadLOUISIANA1372025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.