BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has edged down: down 19% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-19%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 147 in 2024 to a central estimate of 165 (95% range 66–264). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
165Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
66–26495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 147 in 2024 to a central estimate of 165 (95% range 66–264). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
202517172270
202617071268
202716869267
202816768265
202916566264

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LafeARKANSAS8082022
Hickory RidgeARKANSAS7762022
MaynardARKANSAS6392024
PawpawTENNESSEE5652012
Augusta 2ARKANSAS5502016
UlmARKANSAS5192024
West TylerARKANSAS5081984
KelsoARKANSAS4372016
HarrisburgARKANSAS4222019
DellARKANSAS4062024
HaytiMISSOURI3872021
WhittonARKANSAS3731991
AugustaARKANSAS3522001
CommerceMISSISSIPPI2961993
WilsonARKANSAS2932024
BrousvilleLOUISIANA2822024
BlodgettMISSOURI2722024
RayvilleLOUISIANA2622008
DeventerMISSOURI2202024
TchulaMISSISSIPPI2061975
TransylvaniaLOUISIANA1842022
River RoadLOUISIANA1712024
ShelbyMISSISSIPPI1692024
Pawpaw 2TENNESSEE1672023
MayflowerLOUISIANA1522024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.