BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-winged Blackbird In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsWetland birds

Red-winged Blackbird in Central Hardwoods has declined: down 36% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-36%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
165Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

Red-winged Blackbird In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 40 in 2025 to a central estimate of 34 (95% range 17–51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
17–5195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 40 in 2025 to a central estimate of 34 (95% range 17–51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026372053
2027361953
2028351952
2029351852
2030341751

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
YorkILLINOIS3012025
BoxvilleKENTUCKY1871983
KeysburgKENTUCKY1662025
PlumKENTUCKY1502025
RoyaltonILLINOIS1482025
NewberryINDIANA1462025
JohnsonvilleKENTUCKY1402021
RomeOHIO1372025
GlencoeKENTUCKY1332022
PleasurevillKENTUCKY1232025
BirdsILLINOIS1182024
BrownvilleILLINOIS1112025
WashingtonINDIANA1092025
ReedsMISSOURI1072025
PulaskiILLINOIS952025
CyprssINDIANA912025
ScottsburgINDIANA892025
ShelbyvilleKENTUCKY881978
KarnakILLINOIS842025
Brnt PrairieILLINOIS822025
SpencerINDIANA802024
Cole CampMISSOURI801990
MorganfieldKENTUCKY772025
Levee 2KENTUCKY762019
Million 2KENTUCKY762024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.