BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Central Hardwoods has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-37%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
165Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 35 (95% range 18–52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
18–5295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 35 (95% range 18–52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025372054
2026372053
2027361953
2028351852
2029351852

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
YorkILLINOIS2632024
KeysburgKENTUCKY2512024
BoxvilleKENTUCKY1871983
CentertownMISSOURI1782024
West PlainsMISSOURI1532024
PlumKENTUCKY1472024
NewberryINDIANA1442024
JohnsonvilleKENTUCKY1402021
GlencoeKENTUCKY1332022
RomeOHIO1202024
BirdsILLINOIS1182024
Brnt PrairieILLINOIS1112024
WoodlandvilleMISSOURI1102024
ShelbyvilleKENTUCKY881978
RoyaltonILLINOIS842024
WashingtonINDIANA812024
SpencerINDIANA802024
Cole CampMISSOURI801990
Levee 2KENTUCKY762019
Million 2KENTUCKY762024
CelestineINDIANA752024
WhitewaterMISSOURI742024
MorganfieldKENTUCKY702024
KarnakILLINOIS632024
BrownvilleILLINOIS622024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.