BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has declined: down 41% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-41%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
164Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 27 (95% range 17–37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
17–3795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±4.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 27 (95% range 17–37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025281839
2026281838
2027281738
2028271738
2029271737

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HongaMARYLAND2002024
MadisonMARYLAND1562024
Pedricktown 2NEW-JERSEY1362024
WarrenCONNECTICUT1202011
Grove NeckMARYLAND1111996
MelitotaMARYLAND1072024
CokesburyMARYLAND1032024
BlackbirdDELAWARE1002024
EastonMARYLAND922021
Piney NeckMARYLAND852024
PedricktownNEW-JERSEY842012
ShermanCONNECTICUT832019
HarringtonDELAWARE812024
Bethany BchDELAWARE771990
Jones BeachNEW-YORK712013
NewburyportMASSACHUSETTS682022
Golden HillMARYLAND652024
N. AndoverMASSACHUSETTS632024
DeepwaterNEW-JERSEY601977
Ocean CityNEW-JERSEY602024
MatthewsMARYLAND582024
HarmonyMARYLAND552017
Sachuest PtRHODE-ISLAND531990
MasonvilleNEW-JERSEY511970
Mt PleasantDELAWARE502019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.