BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-winged Blackbird In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastWetland birds

Red-winged Blackbird in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-35%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
164Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast. See the full index history below.

Red-winged Blackbird In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 38 in 2025 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 17–38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
17–3895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 38 in 2025 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 17–38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026291839
2027281839
2028281739
2029281738
2030271738

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HongaMARYLAND3202025
MadisonMARYLAND2712025
Pedricktown 2NEW-JERSEY1522025
CokesburyMARYLAND1272025
WarrenCONNECTICUT1202011
Grove NeckMARYLAND1111996
Piney NeckMARYLAND1062025
EastonMARYLAND942025
MelitotaMARYLAND922025
HarringtonDELAWARE842025
PedricktownNEW-JERSEY842012
ShermanCONNECTICUT832019
Golden HillMARYLAND782025
Bethany BchDELAWARE771990
BlackbirdDELAWARE772025
Jones BeachNEW-YORK712013
NewburyportMASSACHUSETTS682022
Block IslandRHODE-ISLAND672025
Milton 2DELAWARE662025
N. AndoverMASSACHUSETTS662025
DeepwaterNEW-JERSEY601977
HarmonyMARYLAND552017
Sachuest PtRHODE-ISLAND531990
MasonvilleNEW-JERSEY511970
Mt PleasantDELAWARE502019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.