BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Chihuahuan Desert has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1973.

13×Since 1973
35Routes In Region
51Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Red-winged Blackbird has surged in Chihuahuan Desert: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 120% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.3 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±344.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+120%Change by 2029
5.3Projected 2029 index
0.00–1395% range
±344.6%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20255.20.0013
20265.20.0013
20275.20.0013
20285.30.0013
20295.30.0013

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Chihuahuan Desert.
MesillaNEW-MEXICO1542000
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO532019
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO481977
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS282009
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO262024
CanutilloTEXAS182024
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS112024
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO102024
PresidioTEXAS82012
RoswellNEW-MEXICO52018
DemingNEW-MEXICO51975
JornadaNEW-MEXICO42013
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO32022
GirvinTEXAS32017
OzonaTEXAS32008
Sierra BlancTEXAS32001
ToyahvaleTEXAS22024
Van HornTEXAS22024
GageNEW-MEXICO12022
RodeoNEW-MEXICO12013
Red RockNEW-MEXICO12021
QueenNEW-MEXICO11999
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO12009
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO12024
EscondidaNEW-MEXICO12004

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.