BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Chihuahuan Desert has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1973.

13×Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has surged in Chihuahuan Desert: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Red-winged Blackbird In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 120% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.3 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±344.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+120%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±344.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 120% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.3 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±344.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.20.0013
20265.20.0013
20275.20.0013
20285.30.0013
20295.30.0013

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MesillaNEW-MEXICO1542000
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO532019
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO481977
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS282009
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO262024
CanutilloTEXAS182024
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS112024
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO102024
PresidioTEXAS82012
RoswellNEW-MEXICO52018
DemingNEW-MEXICO51975
JornadaNEW-MEXICO42013
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO32022
GirvinTEXAS32017
OzonaTEXAS32008
Sierra BlancTEXAS32001
ToyahvaleTEXAS22024
Van HornTEXAS22024
GageNEW-MEXICO12022
RodeoNEW-MEXICO12013
Red RockNEW-MEXICO12021
QueenNEW-MEXICO11999
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO12009
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO12024
EscondidaNEW-MEXICO12004

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.