BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Edwards Plateau has risen sharply: up 55% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+55%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has risen sharply in Edwards Plateau: up 55% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Edwards Plateau is projected to fall about 44% by 2029 — from 3.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.00–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-44%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Edwards Plateau is projected to fall about 44% by 2029 — from 3.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.00–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.10.005.2
20262.00.005.2
20272.00.005.1
20282.00.005.1
20292.00.005.1

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ManorTEXAS422024
AdamsvilleTEXAS62024
UtopiaTEXAS22016
Valley SpgsTEXAS22024
PidcokeTEXAS22016
Pidcoke 2TEXAS22024
LeanderTEXAS22006
MontellTEXAS22022
BoerneTEXAS12024
GeorgetownTEXAS11985
FitzhughTEXAS11983
HarperTEXAS12024
San SabaTEXAS12015
KempnerTEXAS12024
Indian MtnTEXAS11989
Dripping SpgTEXAS12023
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.