BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-winged Blackbird In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauWetland birds

Red-winged Blackbird in Edwards Plateau has risen sharply: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+69%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has risen sharply in Edwards Plateau: up 68% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-winged Blackbird In Edwards Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Edwards Plateau is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 2.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.00–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Edwards Plateau is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 2.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.00–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.10.005.2
20272.10.005.1
20282.00.005.1
20292.00.005.1
20302.00.005.1

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ManorTEXAS422024
Manor 2TEXAS342025
AdamsvilleTEXAS32025
UtopiaTEXAS22016
PidcokeTEXAS22016
Pidcoke 2TEXAS22025
LeanderTEXAS22006
MontellTEXAS22022
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS22025
BoerneTEXAS12024
GeorgetownTEXAS11985
FitzhughTEXAS11983
Valley SpgsTEXAS12025
HarperTEXAS12024
San SabaTEXAS12015
KempnerTEXAS12025
Indian MtnTEXAS11989
Dripping SpgTEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.