BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Boreal Hardwood Transition has declined: down 44% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-44%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in Boreal Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 6.6–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.6–2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 6.6–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025168.524
2026168.024
2027157.623
2028157.123
2029156.622

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BagleyMINNESOTA2462006
GreenbushMINNESOTA1242024
GilmanWISCONSIN1172024
PickfordMICHIGAN642024
Pine RiverMINNESOTA642024
BrainerdMINNESOTA632024
Amnicon FallsWISCONSIN592024
Wigwam BayMINNESOTA562023
CunardMICHIGAN552021
Rib LakeWISCONSIN542024
BenaMINNESOTA531977
WarroadMINNESOTA512024
Mille LacsMINNESOTA472024
Iron RiverWISCONSIN472024
HerronMICHIGAN452016
Hubbard LakeMICHIGAN441996
BayfieldWISCONSIN432024
Pleasant Valley 2MICHIGAN412024
PhillipsWISCONSIN412024
OberlinMICHIGAN402024
Beaver LakeMICHIGAN392011
Weirgor SpringsWISCONSIN392024
NebishMINNESOTA372023
Lake CityMICHIGAN362022
SkeelsMICHIGAN352015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.