BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-winged Blackbird In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionWetland birds

Red-winged Blackbird in Boreal Hardwood Transition has declined: down 43% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-43%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in Boreal Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Red-winged Blackbird In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 33% by 2030 — from 21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 6.5–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-33%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.5–2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 33% by 2030 — from 21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 6.5–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026168.324
2027167.924
2028157.423
2029157.023
2030146.522

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BagleyMINNESOTA2462006
GilmanWISCONSIN1652025
GreenbushMINNESOTA1172025
MayfieldMICHIGAN1122025
BashawWISCONSIN682025
Iron RiverWISCONSIN652025
BrainerdMINNESOTA632024
Rib LakeWISCONSIN622025
Pine RiverMINNESOTA612025
NebishMINNESOTA612025
PickfordMICHIGAN592025
BayfieldWISCONSIN592025
Wigwam BayMINNESOTA562023
CunardMICHIGAN552021
BenaMINNESOTA531977
WarroadMINNESOTA482025
Mille LacsMINNESOTA472024
HerronMICHIGAN452016
Amnicon FallsWISCONSIN452025
Hubbard LakeMICHIGAN441996
Pleasant Valley 2MICHIGAN422025
PhillipsWISCONSIN412025
OberlinMICHIGAN402024
Beaver LakeMICHIGAN392011
Lake CityMICHIGAN362022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.