BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Oaks and Prairies has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-39%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in Oaks and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 33% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.9 (95% range 0.19–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-33%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.19–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 33% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.9 (95% range 0.19–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.11.317
20268.81.017
20278.50.7516
20288.20.4716
20297.90.1916

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RhomeTEXAS1092024
HearneTEXAS1012024
HenriettaTEXAS432022
DuranTEXAS411998
MuldoonTEXAS402024
OakwoodTEXAS381995
Mount ZionTEXAS312024
LockhartTEXAS292024
LocoOKLAHOMA271985
WalburgTEXAS262024
Gambill Ref.TEXAS262024
Wolfe CityTEXAS201987
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA191977
E GeorgetownTEXAS191979
BriteTEXAS162024
MegargelTEXAS142024
HobsonTEXAS122024
CampbelltonTEXAS122024
Blue RidgeTEXAS122024
BeggsOKLAHOMA102023
WeatherfordTEXAS102024
Miller GroveTEXAS102024
DikeTEXAS102024
OlneyTEXAS82024
HeyburnOKLAHOMA72024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.