BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-winged Blackbird In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesWetland birds

Red-winged Blackbird in Oaks and Prairies has declined: down 41% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-41%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in Oaks and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Red-winged Blackbird In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.7 (95% range 0.06–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.7 (95% range 0.06–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.81.217
20278.60.8916
20288.30.6216
20298.00.3416
20307.70.0615

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HearneTEXAS852025
HobsonTEXAS802025
HenriettaTEXAS432022
DuranTEXAS411998
OakwoodTEXAS381995
LockhartTEXAS372025
WalburgTEXAS362025
LocoOKLAHOMA271985
MuldoonTEXAS262025
Mount ZionTEXAS252025
Gambill Ref.TEXAS222025
Wolfe CityTEXAS201987
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA191977
E GeorgetownTEXAS191979
GrafordTEXAS172025
Miller GroveTEXAS172025
WeatherfordTEXAS152025
DikeTEXAS132025
CampbelltonTEXAS122024
Blue RidgeTEXAS122025
MegargelTEXAS122025
Three RiversTEXAS112025
BeggsOKLAHOMA102023
OlneyTEXAS82024
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA72025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.