BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Great Basin has increased: up 47% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+47%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
239Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Great Basin is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 29 (95% range 18–40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
18–4095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Great Basin is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 29 (95% range 18–40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025291840
2026291840
2027291840
2028291840
2029291840

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DorrisCALIFORNIA19522019
MesaWASHINGTON2512008
UmatillaOREGON2352023
OthelloWASHINGTON1881991
Scootney ReservoirWASHINGTON1812024
PicaboIDAHO1702021
Fish LakeOREGON1692024
LikelyCALIFORNIA1582024
SheavilleOREGON1582024
HarwoodWASHINGTON1401997
Glenns FerryIDAHO1381986
Ewan 2WASHINGTON1352024
Iron GateCALIFORNIA1142019
MaldenWASHINGTON1122024
PromontoryUTAH1082024
CedarvilleCALIFORNIA1002024
MerrillOREGON982022
Bear RiverUTAH962023
NighthawkWASHINGTON902024
EwanWASHINGTON892019
AcequiaIDAHO852012
PotholesWASHINGTON852023
Warner VallyOREGON832024
Modoc PointOREGON792018
Trout CreekOREGON792021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.