BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-winged Blackbird In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinWetland birds

Red-winged Blackbird in Great Basin has risen sharply: up 67% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+67%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
239Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has risen sharply in Great Basin: up 67% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Red-winged Blackbird In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 29 (95% range 18–40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
18–4095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 29 (95% range 18–40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026291840
2027291840
2028291840
2029291840
2030291840

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DorrisCALIFORNIA19522019
LikelyCALIFORNIA4852025
MesaWASHINGTON2512008
CedarvilleCALIFORNIA2432025
OthelloWASHINGTON1881991
PicaboIDAHO1702025
Fish LakeOREGON1542025
UmatillaOREGON1492025
HarwoodWASHINGTON1401997
Glenns FerryIDAHO1381986
RirieIDAHO1362025
Ewan 2WASHINGTON1232025
JosephOREGON1212025
Trout CreekOREGON1202025
SheavilleOREGON1162025
Iron GateCALIFORNIA1142019
Scootney ReservoirWASHINGTON1122025
MerrillOREGON982022
Gardnerville 2NEVADA912025
Modoc Point 2OREGON912025
YakimaWASHINGTON912025
Bear RiverUTAH892025
EwanWASHINGTON892019
AcequiaIDAHO852012
PotholesWASHINGTON852023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.