BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-winged Blackbird In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionWetland birds

Red-winged Blackbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition has declined: down 32% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-32%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
161Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Red-winged Blackbird In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 112 in 2025 to a central estimate of 98 (95% range 66–129). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
98Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
66–12995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 112 in 2025 to a central estimate of 98 (95% range 66–129). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
202610473136
202710371134
202810169133
20299968131
20309866129

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
N AndoverWISCONSIN3862025
FestinaIOWA3362025
PackertownINDIANA3292004
OmroWISCONSIN3052001
Hazel GreenWISCONSIN2952025
BeloitWISCONSIN2852025
Bell OakMICHIGAN2802014
LapeerMICHIGAN2782025
Money CreekMINNESOTA2502025
GuilfordILLINOIS2392023
EdenWISCONSIN2322025
GrimmsWISCONSIN2292021
StratfordWISCONSIN2102025
EllisINDIANA2092024
UnityWISCONSIN2032025
ParisWISCONSIN1972025
N BaltimoreOHIO1952019
AnnatonWISCONSIN1922025
TrempealeauWISCONSIN1902025
AdairMICHIGAN1891995
BrownsvilleWISCONSIN1802025
Lake GalenaILLINOIS1772021
PettysvilleMICHIGAN1731979
CaledoniaMINNESOTA1672012
Brook ParkMINNESOTA1662025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.