BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition has declined: down 31% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-31%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
161Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 111 in 2024 to a central estimate of 99 (95% range 67–131). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
99Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
67–13195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 111 in 2024 to a central estimate of 99 (95% range 67–131). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
202510573137
202610472135
202710270134
202810069132
20299967131

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Money CreekMINNESOTA3752024
LapeerMICHIGAN3482024
PackertownINDIANA3292004
N AndoverWISCONSIN3102024
OmroWISCONSIN3052001
Hazel GreenWISCONSIN2822024
Bell OakMICHIGAN2802014
KielWISCONSIN2792022
BeloitWISCONSIN2682024
NapoleonOHIO2412024
GuilfordILLINOIS2392023
StratfordWISCONSIN2322024
GrimmsWISCONSIN2292021
AnnatonWISCONSIN2112024
EllisINDIANA2092024
EdenWISCONSIN2072024
ParisWISCONSIN2042024
FestinaIOWA2022024
HighlandWISCONSIN1972024
N BaltimoreOHIO1952019
AdairMICHIGAN1891995
Caledonia 2MINNESOTA1862024
OsseoMINNESOTA1792024
Lake GalenaILLINOIS1772021
UnityWISCONSIN1762024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.