BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Texas

All statesWetland birds

Red-winged Blackbird in Texas has fallen sharply: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-52%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
228Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has fallen sharply in Texas: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 26 (95% range 6.1–46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.1–4695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 26 (95% range 6.1–46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026288.048
2027277.547
2028277.147
2029266.646
2030266.146

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Progreso63820111994
Waka42720251975
Indianola33820241967
Gruver28620251994
Twichell23220251996
Raymondville21120251969
Bayside 320620252005
Petronila19120251968
Loyola Beach 217720252010
Rock Island16620251967
Heidelberg16320242013
Cactus16120251994
Oyster Lake16020251995
Pantex15720251974
Bayside14320101994
Claytonville14020221995
Kermit13819941994
Bayside 212820041997
Chinquapin12520251995
Winnie12020251967
Hondo11220251969
L. Atascosa Nwr9520251998
Vanderbilt9019761969
Hearne8520251998
Lag Atascosa8020251969

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.