BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Texas has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-47%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
226Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in Texas. See the full index history below.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 27 (95% range 6.5–47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.5–4795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 27 (95% range 6.5–47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025288.549
2026288.048
2027287.548
2028277.047
2029276.547

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Progreso63820111994
Waka37320241975
Indianola33820241967
Oyster Lake28520241995
Petronila21820241968
Gruver21020241994
Heidelberg16320242013
L. Atascosa Nwr15320231998
Winnie14820241967
Rock Island14820241967
Bayside14320101994
Claytonville14020221995
Kermit13819941994
Bayside 212820041997
Bayside 312820242005
Hondo12220241969
Chinquapin11520241995
Loyola Beach 211320242010
Dalhart11120241994
Cactus11120241994
Rhome10920241967
Hearne10120241998
Vanderbilt9019761969
Raymondville9020241969
Twichell8820231996

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.