BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in New York

All statesGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in New York has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-57%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
129Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has fallen sharply in New York: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in New York is projected to fall about 62% by 2029 — from 66 in 2024 to a central estimate of 25 (95% range 0.00–62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-62%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in New York is projected to fall about 62% by 2029 — from 66 in 2024 to a central estimate of 25 (95% range 0.00–62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025320.0069
2026300.0067
2027290.0065
2028270.0064
2029250.0062

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Warwick29319741968
N Victory27219721967
Watertown23720121967
Cicero Ctr23420241966
Macdougall21120241969
Churchville19220241968
Cooperstown15919771968
West Seneca15820041966
Cayuga15520241969
Orleans14820241967
Romulus14620001968
E Youngstown13520231966
Cattaraugus11720191967
Swain11520071967
Coventryvile11120231967
Castile11020241967
Oxford10719761967
Dryden9520241966
S Berne 29520242014
Alder Creek9220041968
Naples9220241966
Gainesville8820231967
Branchport8620241967
Mcdonough8520171967
Oriskany Fls8520241967

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.