BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in New York

All statesWetland birds

Red-winged Blackbird in New York has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-53%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
129Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has fallen sharply in New York: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in New York is projected to fall about 61% by 2030 — from 68 in 2025 to a central estimate of 26 (95% range 0.00–64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-61%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in New York is projected to fall about 61% by 2030 — from 68 in 2025 to a central estimate of 26 (95% range 0.00–64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026330.0071
2027310.0069
2028300.0067
2029280.0066
2030260.0064

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Warwick29319741968
N Victory27219721967
Watertown23720121967
Cicero Ctr23420251966
Macdougall17520251969
Churchville16320251968
Cayuga16020251969
Cooperstown15919771968
West Seneca15820041966
E Youngstown14720251966
Romulus14620001968
Castile13120251967
Orleans11720251967
Cattaraugus11720191967
Naples11620251966
Swain11520071967
Coventryvile11120231967
Oxford10719761967
Duanesburg10120251966
Dryden10120251966
East Java9920251967
Philadelphia9420251980
Alder Creek9220041968
S Berne 29220252014
Gainesville8820231967

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.