BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Vermont

All statesWetland birds

Red-winged Blackbird in Vermont has fallen sharply: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-64%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has fallen sharply in Vermont: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Vermont is projected to fall about 55% by 2030 — from 33 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 0.00–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-55%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Vermont is projected to fall about 55% by 2030 — from 33 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 0.00–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026192.935
2027181.834
2028170.7133
2029160.0032
2030150.0031

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hinesburg20719941966
North Pownal8220251966
East Haven6420251966
Waterville6119801967
Fletcher5720251968
Grand Isle5420251967
Colchester5020251986
Shaftsbury4820251966
Bristol4720251995
S Wallingfrd4120221966
Hardwick4120241966
Northfld Fls3920251980
W Rutland3420251966
Stowe3320241988
Middlesex2420251968
Landgrove1720251966
Greensboro1720251967
Post Mills1420251966
Newbury1320041986
Stratton1120251966
St Johnsbury1120251970
Marlboro820251966
East Calais720251966
Newbury 2720232005
Gaysville620251966

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.