BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Vermont

All statesGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Vermont has fallen sharply: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-66%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has fallen sharply in Vermont: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Vermont is projected to fall about 49% by 2029 — from 29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 0.00–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-49%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Vermont is projected to fall about 49% by 2029 — from 29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 0.00–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025193.235
2026182.134
2027171.033
2028160.0032
2029150.0030

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hinesburg20719941966
Bristol8620181995
Grand Isle7820241967
Waterville6119801967
Fletcher5720241968
East Haven5020241966
W Rutland4320241966
S Wallingfrd4120221966
Hardwick4120241966
Colchester3720241986
Stowe3320241988
North Pownal3120241966
Shaftsbury2820241966
Middlesex2320241968
Greensboro2020241967
East Calais1720241966
Landgrove1420241966
Post Mills1320241966
Newbury1320041986
St Johnsbury1120241970
Stratton920241966
Newbury 2720232005
Marlboro620241966
S Reading320241966
Northfld Fls320211980

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.