BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Alabama

All statesGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Alabama has collapsed: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-88%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
107Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has collapsed in Alabama: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Alabama is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 5.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±190%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±190%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Alabama is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 5.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±190%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.0016
20260.000.0016
20270.000.0016
20280.000.0016
20290.000.0016

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Foley9819841966
Dearmanville6519831966
Summitt5119811966
Wheeler Dam4420231993
Alabama Pt 24420192004
Bon Secour3820231993
Hillsboro3119961966
Valhermoso Spg 23020142014
Valhermoso Spgs2720101966
Dawson2519981966
Dauphin Is 22520191991
Chacaloochee Bay2220192009
Swaim2020241966
Talladega1920241996
Dauphin Is 31920212021
Rock Chapel1720241995
Riverside1720131999
Calebee1620241993
Georgetown1520241994
Lakeview1520241999
Madrid1420231994
Carter Grove1420232002
St Florian1320241967
Warrior Std1320241966
Brooksville1320231984

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.