BirdAnalyst
Species · Mississippi · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Mississippi has declined: down 36% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-36%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in Mississippi. See the full index history below.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Mississippi is projected to fall about 55% by 2029 — from 41 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 0.00–44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-55%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Mississippi is projected to fall about 55% by 2029 — from 41 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 0.00–44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025220.0047
2026210.0047
2027200.0046
2028190.0045
2029180.0044

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Commerce29619931966
Tchula20619751970
Shelby16920242009
Dahomey Nwr13920242011
Tippo13620241996
Winterville12420112009
Tchula 211419941976
Eagle Lake9520242012
Moon9220211996
Dundee8720221970
Isola8320221968
Tchula 37220241995
Macon6720241966
Walthall5219871970
Benton3920241972
Tallahatchie2720241996
Tupelo2320221966
Poplarville2219781972
Beverly1720111966
Trace Madison1620192015
Panther Swamp Nwr1420182016
Olive Branch 21420222016
Olive Branch1320011966
Scooba1219821967
Diberville1119871980

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.