BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Utah

All statesGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Utah has surged: up 263% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+263%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
79Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has surged in Utah: up 263% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Utah is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 9.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 5.2–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.2–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Utah is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 9.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 5.2–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025114.818
2026114.918
2027115.018
2028125.118
2029125.218

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Promontory10820241969
Neponset Res10620181995
Randolph10220241992
Bear River9620231992
Woodruff9120242002
Goshen6220241968
Lynn6220231982
Goose Creek Mtn.5020231997
Callao4420241992
Saleratus Cr4120181995
Wellington 32620242012
Hill Creek2319951993
Delta2220241987
Kamas2220241997
Hanna1920241997
Leamington1220171995
Newcastle1020221997
Ant Flat-Ogden Can920231994
Gold Hill920241988
M Warner Res820241994
Bicknell820211997
E. Bear Lake820221995
Oak City720241973
Hardware Ranch720231994
Monticello720231999

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.