BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Utah

All statesWetland birds

Red-winged Blackbird in Utah has surged: up 265% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+265%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has surged in Utah: up 265% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Utah is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 5.3–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.3–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Utah is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 5.3–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026115.018
2027125.118
2028125.218
2029125.218
2030125.318

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Neponset Res10620181995
Bear River8920251992
Woodruff8420252002
Randolph8120251992
Delta6220251987
Goshen5920251968
Goose Creek Mtn.5920251997
Callao4620251992
Saleratus Cr4120181995
Lynn3220251982
Promontory3020251969
Kamas2820251997
Hill Creek2319951993
Hanna1920241997
Wellington 31620252012
Bicknell1420251997
E. Bear Lake1320251995
Leamington1220171995
M Warner Res1020251994
Altonah920251969
Hatch920252000
Snowville920251999
Oak City720241973
Hardware Ranch720231994
Hyrum619751975

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.