BirdAnalyst
Species · Maine · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Maine

All statesGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Maine has fallen sharply: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-66%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in MaineNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has fallen sharply in Maine: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in Maine

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Maine is projected to fall about 62% by 2029 — from 8.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 0.00–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-62%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Maine is projected to fall about 62% by 2029 — from 8.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 0.00–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.30.0011
20264.00.0011
20273.70.0011
20283.40.0011
20293.10.0010

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in Maine

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Maine.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Biddeford4120191973
Benton3919801971
Harmony3720241967
Turner3620101972
Washburn3020051979
Jefferson2620101991
Ft Fairfield2420051993
St David2420051982
Cornville2420242012
Otisfield Gr2320151966
Kittery Pt1920241966
East Troy1920191972
Warren1919901973
Cambridge1920141967
Cape Neddick1720241972
Ashland1620081980
Hermon1520191966
Charleston1120191975
Northfield1019811976
Boundary1020161993
Newcastle920241971
Waite919771977
Ludlow919981968
Greenwood820241966
Freedom820221973

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.