BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Washington

All statesGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Washington has surged: up 237% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+237%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
102Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has surged in Washington: up 237% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Washington is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 17–37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
17–3795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Washington is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 17–37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025261636
2026261636
2027261736
2028271736
2029271737

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mesa25120081994
Othello18819911981
Scootney Reservoir18120242009
Harwood14019971993
Ewan 213520242023
Mendota11219881977
Malden11220241998
Nighthawk9020241992
Ewan8920191983
Potholes8520231996
Turnbull Nwr7420231993
Wilbur7020241983
Harrington6820121972
Reardan6120241968
Yakima5720241993
Bay View5320171993
Walla Walla5219931993
Columbia Nwr5020221992
Wapato4920221971
Quincy4920241981
Keystone4520241994
Montesand4520242010
South Elma4320241975
Moses Lake3120221973
Ellensburg2820241981

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.