BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Washington

All statesWetland birds

Red-winged Blackbird in Washington has surged: up 244% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+244%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
103Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has surged in Washington: up 244% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Washington is projected to rise about 53% by 2030 — from 17 in 2025 to a central estimate of 26 (95% range 16–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+53%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
16–3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Washington is projected to rise about 53% by 2030 — from 17 in 2025 to a central estimate of 26 (95% range 16–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026251635
2027261636
2028261636
2029261636
2030261636

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mesa25120081994
Othello18819911981
Harwood14019971993
Ewan 212320252023
Mendota11219881977
Scootney Reservoir11220252009
Yakima9120251993
Ewan8920191983
Potholes8520231996
Turnbull Nwr7420231993
Harrington6820121972
Nighthawk6820251992
Malden6820251998
Bay View5320171993
Walla Walla5219931993
Columbia Nwr5020221992
Wapato4920221971
Quincy4920241981
Wilbur4820251983
Montesand4520242010
South Elma4320241975
Keystone4020251994
Reardan3320251968
Moses Lake3120221973
Ellensburg2820251981

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.