BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Tennessee has declined: down 38% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-38%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in Tennessee. See the full index history below.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Tennessee is projected to rise about 38% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 6.3–38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.3–3895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Tennessee is projected to rise about 38% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 6.3–38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025247.640
2026237.339
2027237.039
2028236.739
2029226.338

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pawpaw56520121966
Pawpaw 216720232013
Humboldt8320241966
Mansfield7920241966
Tibbs7320241966
Petersburg4020191966
Belotes Bend3920181966
Climer3820041967
Allens Brdge3420231966
Bradyville3320211966
Tiptonville3120231966
Jefferson Cty3120111966
Campbellsville2520191966
Walland2419891966
Union Hill2020241967
Jones Gap2020191982
Collinwood1920241966
Oliver Spgs1520221966
Jasper1220241967
Brownsville1120241966
Glen1120241966
Lovell1020191966
Corryton Rd1020191966
Indian Mound919981966
Soddy919811967

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.