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Species · Tennessee · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesWetland birds

Red-winged Blackbird in Tennessee has declined: down 31% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-31%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in Tennessee. See the full index history below.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Tennessee is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 25 in 2025 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 6.3–38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.3–3895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Tennessee is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 25 in 2025 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 6.3–38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026237.639
2027237.339
2028236.939
2029226.638
2030226.338

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pawpaw56520121966
Pawpaw 217420252013
Tibbs7220251966
Mansfield7220251966
Humboldt6120251966
Petersburg4020191966
Belotes Bend3920181966
Climer3820041967
Allens Brdge3420231966
Bradyville3320211966
Jefferson Cty3120111966
Campbellsville2520191966
Walland2419891966
Tiptonville2120251966
Union Hill2020241967
Jones Gap2020191982
Glen1920251966
Brownsville1620251966
Oliver Spgs1520221966
Collinwood1420251966
Jasper1320251967
Big Sandy1220251966
Lovell1020191966
Corryton Rd1020191966
Indian Mound919981966

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.