BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Virginia has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-73%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
77Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has fallen sharply in Virginia: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Virginia is projected to fall about 51% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 0.00–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-51%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Virginia is projected to fall about 51% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 0.00–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.60.0020
20266.30.0020
20275.90.0020
20285.60.0019
20295.20.0019

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Churchville15120241966
Blacksburg7520241988
Rural Retrt4720241982
Marion4419821976
Hebron4320221981
Hebron 24320242023
Clinchport3919781967
Saltville3520241969
Jerome3220231971
Taylorstown3120101967
Chincoteag W2420241992
David2320131968
Taylorstown 22020242012
W Augusta1920241967
Newbern1919821968
Ivanhoe1719681966
Quinby1520241966
Colonial Pky1419981992
Cornland1220141975
Brandy Station1120242017
Edinburg920241968
Cape Charles920181992
Natural Brid820241974
Concord820241967
Star Tannery720241977

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.