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Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Virginia

All statesWetland birds

Red-winged Blackbird in Virginia has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-71%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
77Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has fallen sharply in Virginia: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Virginia is projected to fall about 58% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.3 (95% range 0.00–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-58%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Virginia is projected to fall about 58% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.3 (95% range 0.00–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.70.0020
20276.30.0020
20286.00.0020
20295.70.0019
20305.30.0019

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Churchville12720251966
Blacksburg9520251988
Rural Retrt5720251982
Marion4419821976
Hebron4320221981
Clinchport3919781967
Hebron 23320252023
Taylorstown3120101967
Saltville2620251969
Quinby2520251966
Chincoteag W2420241992
Jerome2320251971
David2320131968
Brandy Station2320252017
Star Tannery2220251977
Newbern1919821968
W Augusta1720251967
Natural Brid1720251974
Ivanhoe1719681966
Taylorstown 21720252012
Colonial Pky1419981992
Mannboro1320251967
Nat Tunnel1320251981
Cornland1220141975
Edinburg1120251968

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.