BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Oregon

All statesGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Oregon has risen sharply: up 71% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+71%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
123Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has risen sharply in Oregon: up 71% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Oregon is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 0.00–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Oregon is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 0.00–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025150.0030
2026140.0030
2027140.0030
2028140.0029
2029140.0029

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bridgeport32820221986
Umatilla23520231988
Fish Lake16920241972
Sheaville15820242012
Sparta13220011971
Merrill9820221993
Dayton8420241973
Warner Vally8320241993
Modoc Point7920181969
Trout Creek7920211996
Princeton7019851972
Joseph6920241971
Alvord Lake6820241968
Bly6720011973
Modoc Point 26120242024
Ochoco6019821972
Deschutes5820241968
Adair5820241971
Nicolai Mtn.5720241993
Chinchalo5520241993
Derby4419931968
Ordnance4219791971
Pendleton4020241972
Donnybrook3919971997
Barnes Val3719871971

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.