BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Oregon

All statesWetland birds

Red-winged Blackbird in Oregon has risen sharply: up 75% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+75%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
125Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has risen sharply in Oregon: up 75% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Oregon is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 23 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 0.00–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-39%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Oregon is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 23 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 0.00–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026150.0030
2027150.0030
2028150.0030
2029140.0030
2030140.0029

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bridgeport22120251986
Fish Lake15420251972
Sparta15020251971
Umatilla14920251988
Joseph12120251971
Trout Creek12020251996
Sheaville11620252012
Merrill9820221993
Modoc Point 29120252024
Warner Vally8320241993
Unity8120251992
Modoc Point7920181969
Adair7520251971
Princeton7019851972
Bly6720011973
Ochoco6019821972
Bly 25420252007
Dayton5120251973
Mcminnville5020251994
Catlow Rim4520251994
Derby4419931968
Alvord Lake4420251968
Chinchalo4320251993
Ordnance4219791971
Emigrant Lake 24220252002

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.