BirdAnalyst
Species · Idaho · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Idaho

All statesGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Idaho has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-63%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has fallen sharply in Idaho: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Idaho is projected to rise about 52% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 5.1–33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+52%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.1–3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Idaho is projected to rise about 52% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 5.1–33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025195.533
2026195.433
2027195.333
2028195.233
2029195.133

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Picabo17020211988
Glenns Ferry13819861968
Crane Creek13020191988
Acequia8520121979
Cedar Hill7820241989
Grangeville6919861986
Pocatello6720191979
Bates5620231988
Cabarton4920231985
Ririe4620231971
Preston4620231988
Pasadena Val4520161987
Dougal Res4120241988
Mud Lake3620231988
Naples3420241972
Baker3020241974
Cape Horn2720241972
Blackft Res2220181984
Blacks Creek2220171968
Centerville2120191972
Nezperce Nf1919991992
Cascade1719841968
Leadore1220241974
Joel1220241989
Iron Springs1220241988

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.