BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in New Jersey has edged down: down 14% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-14%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in New Jersey. See the full index history below.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in New Jersey is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 11–34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in New Jersey is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 11–34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025241235
2026231235
2027231235
2028231234
2029231134

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pedricktown 213620242013
Pedricktown8420121991
Croton 28220242008
Deepwater6019771969
Ocean City6020241979
Masonville5119701966
Clarksville4119911969
Pottersville3920241977
Ramseysburg3820241995
Holmansville3620091969
Hope3419941970
High Point3220241977
Six Points3120241978
Croton2920071970
Gillette2620241988
Roosevelt2620221986
Winslow2620241989
Dover2420231977
Villas2419811979
Woodbury Hgt2220241967
Bennett Mill 21820242016
Sandbrook1320241969
Kemah Lake1120241966
Ancora1019771966
Bennett Mill1020001966

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.