BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesWetland birds

Red-winged Blackbird in New Jersey has held roughly steady: down 10% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-10%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in New Jersey. See the full index history below.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in New Jersey is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 28 in 2025 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 12–34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in New Jersey is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 28 in 2025 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 12–34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026241235
2027231235
2028231235
2029231234
2030231234

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pedricktown 215220252013
Pedricktown8420121991
Deepwater6019771969
Masonville5119701966
Six Points4720251978
Croton 24420252008
Clarksville4119911969
Ocean City4120251979
Pottersville3920241977
Ramseysburg3920251995
Holmansville3620091969
Hope3419941970
High Point3220251977
Croton2920071970
Roosevelt2620221986
Gillette2520251988
Winslow2520251989
Dover2420231977
Villas2419811979
Woodbury Hgt2220251967
Cranbury1620251987
Sandbrook1220251969
Friendship1220251977
Kemah Lake1120241966
Ancora1019771966

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.