Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Alaska
Red-winged Blackbird in Alaska has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1985.
-59%Since 1985
18Routes In State
40Years
Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in Alaska
long arc declinecomputed index
Red-winged Blackbird has fallen sharply in Alaska: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1985.
Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in Alaska
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Alaska is projected to fall about 57% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±111.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-57%Change by 2029
0.03Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.1295% range
±111.7%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| 2026 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| 2027 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| 2028 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| 2029 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in Alaska
| Petersburg | 3 | 1987 | 1987 |
| Hyder | 2 | 2009 | 1994 |
| Slana | 2 | 2024 | 1994 |
| Ft. Richrdsn | 2 | 2006 | 1996 |
| Yakutat | 2 | 2018 | 2001 |
| Zimovia Strt | 1 | 1997 | 1997 |
| Chistochina | 1 | 1997 | 1996 |
| Northway | 1 | 2003 | 1993 |
| L Salcha | 1 | 2023 | 2023 |
| Stikine River | 1 | 2005 | 1998 |
| Elmendorf (Short) | 1 | 1985 | 1985 |
| Cordova | 1 | 2012 | 1983 |
| Kenny Lake | 1 | 2003 | 1987 |
| Juneau | 1 | 2024 | 1983 |
| Craig | 1 | 2017 | 2017 |
| Mitkof Isle | 1 | 2024 | 1991 |
| Haines | 1 | 2024 | 1993 |
| Sitka | 1 | 2012 | 2012 |
Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States
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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.