BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Alaska

All statesGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Alaska has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

-59%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has fallen sharply in Alaska: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Alaska is projected to fall about 57% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±111.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-57%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±111.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Alaska is projected to fall about 57% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±111.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19832029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.040.000.12
20260.040.000.12
20270.040.000.12
20280.030.000.12
20290.030.000.12

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Petersburg319871987
Hyder220091994
Slana220241994
Ft. Richrdsn220061996
Yakutat220182001
Zimovia Strt119971997
Chistochina119971996
Northway120031993
L Salcha120232023
Stikine River120051998
Elmendorf (Short)119851985
Cordova120121983
Kenny Lake120031987
Juneau120241983
Craig120172017
Mitkof Isle120241991
Haines120241993
Sitka120122012

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.