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Species · Georgia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Georgia

All statesWetland birds

Red-winged Blackbird in Georgia has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-76%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in GeorgiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has collapsed in Georgia: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in Georgia

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Georgia is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±95.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Georgia is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.60.0020
20271.90.0020
20281.30.0019
20290.560.0018
20300.000.0018

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in Georgia

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Georgia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shiloh9620252012
Bethany7420252012
Cotton7020251972
Darien6620191966
Boston6620251975
Henderson5820251973
Owensboro5320252010
Fitzgerald4620251966
Finleyson4520251976
Wadley4320251977
Weber4120252006
Philema4020252010
Lincolnton3420171966
Colonels Island3320232005
Dickey3220182005
Lyons2919941966
Workmore2520251978
Nashville2020251975
Pitts1920251977
Coffee Co1920251986
Newton1820251975
Baxley1720191966
Cuthbert1720251967
Stoney Point 21720212013
Lacross1620251973

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.