BirdAnalyst
Species · Georgia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Georgia

All statesGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Georgia has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-76%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in GeorgiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has collapsed in Georgia: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in Georgia

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Georgia is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±91.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Georgia is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.50.0020
20261.80.0019
20271.10.0019
20280.360.0018
20290.000.0018

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in Georgia

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Georgia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shiloh8520242012
Fitzgerald7320241966
Weber6920242006
Darien6620191966
Boston6420241975
Finleyson5720241976
Henderson5420241973
Newton5220241975
Cotton4920241972
Owensboro4820242010
Lincolnton3420171966
Wadley3320241977
Colonels Island3320232005
Rutledge3220241975
Dickey3220182005
Philema3020242010
Cuthbert2920241967
Lyons2919941966
Bethany2320242012
Vidalia2020241995
Coffee Co2020241986
Baxley1720191966
Stoney Point 21720212013
Fowlstown1520161967
Hollonville 21520222019

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.