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Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Montana

All statesGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Montana has risen sharply: up 67% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+67%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
110Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has risen sharply in Montana: up 67% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Montana is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 42 in 2024 to a central estimate of 29 (95% range 16–43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
16–4395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Montana is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 42 in 2024 to a central estimate of 29 (95% range 16–43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025291642
2026291642
2027291642
2028291643
2029291643

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Westby29020242015
Harlem26120211968
Pablo Res.21920241995
Cleveland14920241979
Clyde Park14220242018
Winifred12420232023
Wolf Point11420242015
Winifred 210020242024
Dinosaurs H.M.9720242018
Brusett9220241982
Two Dot9120241976
Hehn Draw8920242016
Forsyth8820231980
Hay Lake8020221988
Glentana7520242015
Raynesford7520242016
Ester Lake7420242015
Wheat Basin7220242017
Willow Creek 27120241982
Lindsay7120242015
Malta7020241975
St Xavier6920111979
Circle6820231969
Chuffey Spring6820242016
Shawmut6520241979

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.