BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Montana

All statesWetland birds

Red-winged Blackbird in Montana has surged: up 76% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+76%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
110Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has surged in Montana: up 76% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Montana is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 42 in 2025 to a central estimate of 30 (95% range 17–44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
17–4495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Montana is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 42 in 2025 to a central estimate of 30 (95% range 17–44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026301643
2027301644
2028301744
2029301744
2030301744

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Harlem26120211968
Westby20820252015
Winifred 218520252024
Pablo Res.17820251995
Winifred12420232023
Webster11920251978
Wolf Point11420242015
Miles City11220252015
Raynesford10720252016
Glentana9520252015
Clyde Park9320252018
Brusett9220241982
Forsyth8820231980
Sun River8720252015
Chinook8320252015
Lambert8220252021
Willow Creek 27820251982
Oswego7520251978
Cleveland7420251979
Lindsay7120242015
Church Hill7120252017
Chuffey Spring7020252016
St Xavier6920111979
Circle6820231969
Two Dot6820251976

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.