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Species · West Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesWetland birds

Red-winged Blackbird in West Virginia has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-61%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has fallen sharply in West Virginia: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in West Virginia is projected to fall about 53% by 2030 — from 25 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 0.00–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-53%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in West Virginia is projected to fall about 53% by 2030 — from 25 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 0.00–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026140.0035
2027140.0034
2028130.0034
2029120.0033
2030120.0032

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Arlee25819791966
Mt Storm10119751966
Pt Pleasant8520251973
Meadland7620251997
Sugar Grove7520251966
Slate6420251980
Denmar4720251980
Ruthbelle4620251975
Berryburg4319961975
Valley Head4220251966
Spencer4120241986
Nicut3720251986
Moundsville3620251972
Bebee3520251972
Lost River3420251996
Pedro3220251979
Smoot3120251980
Smithfield3120251993
Green Bank3020251977
Ringgold2920252025
Meadowville2720251972
Martinsburg2620251966
Mo Of Seneca2520251969
Rockport2520251966
Hix2320251970

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.