BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in North Dakota has risen sharply: up 72% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+72%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has risen sharply in North Dakota: up 72% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 264 (95% range 219–309). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
264Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
219–30995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 264 (95% range 219–309). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025254209299
2026257212302
2027259214304
2028261216306
2029264219309

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Horsehead Lk85320241980
Wimbledon75320241981
Sheyenne Lk58020241980
Danzig 250420242019
Cooperstown39520241969
Buchanan33820241967
Braddock29620221988
Forman29020241968
Danzig28920141982
Montpelier28020241990
Douglas Crk26720241982
Powers Lake26320241980
Edgeley25120241980
Bowman23220241967
Bentley23020241988
Denbigh22520241968
Niles21720241989
Lakota 219620242010
Rolla18520241969
Abercrombie18120121967
Sydney17519831967
Lake George17320221967
Loraine17320191982
Dunn Center17120241968
Carson16720241988

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.