BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesWetland birds

Red-winged Blackbird in North Dakota has surged: up 88% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+88%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has surged in North Dakota: up 88% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in North Dakota is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 318 in 2025 to a central estimate of 271 (95% range 224–318). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
271Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
224–31895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in North Dakota is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 318 in 2025 to a central estimate of 271 (95% range 224–318). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026261214308
2027263216311
2028266219313
2029269221316
2030271224318

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glen Ullin184820251982
Horsehead Lk82420251980
Wimbledon80520251981
Sheyenne Lk48320251980
Buchanan37720251967
Montpelier35120251990
Douglas Crk31720251982
Cooperstown31320251969
Danzig28920141982
Danzig 228820252019
Denbigh28620251968
Regan27320251968
Braddock26320231988
Forman24720251968
Bentley23020241988
Lakota 221820252010
Powers Lake21620251980
Niles20120251989
Edgeley19720251980
Carson19320251988
Rolla18520241969
Dunn Center18420251968
Abercrombie18120121967
Sydney17519831967
Loraine17320191982

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.