BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesWetland birds

Red-winged Blackbird in Nebraska has edged up: up 18% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+18%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in Nebraska. See the full index history below.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Nebraska is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 101 in 2025 to a central estimate of 89 (95% range 68–111). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
68–11195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Nebraska is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 101 in 2025 to a central estimate of 89 (95% range 68–111). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268866110
20278867110
20288967110
20298967111
20308968111

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wheeler Co39120251978
Berea32120251980
Brownlee27820251990
Winside26920031967
Kennedy25320251976
Sumner20820251967
Surprise20020251967
Table18120251973
Sparta17420251967
Crescent Lk17020251980
Chambers16620252023
Paxton14720161967
Nenzel14220252018
Hampton14220252018
Swan Lake13620251969
Tilden13520252019
Winside 213520222005
Kenesaw13120251967
Piester Lake13120251967
Belvidere12620251967
Madison12620252018
Boelus12320222018
Johnstown11720251967
Murray Lake11620251987
Agate 211520252002

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.