BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Nebraska has edged up: up 19% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+19%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in Nebraska. See the full index history below.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Nebraska is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 99 in 2024 to a central estimate of 88 (95% range 66–110). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
66–11095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Nebraska is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 99 in 2024 to a central estimate of 88 (95% range 66–110). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258765108
20268765109
20278766109
20288866109
20298866110

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brownlee38620241990
Wheeler Co32720241978
Kennedy27420241976
Winside26920031967
Sumner23520241967
Chambers20320232023
Nenzel19020242018
Table16920241973
Lyons16620242018
Berea15920191980
Paxton14720161967
Sparta14720211967
Surprise14020241967
Piester Lake13720241967
Crawford13720241980
Winside 213520222005
Johnstown13320241967
Agate 213220242002
Kenesaw13120241967
Sargent12520242021
Boelus12320222018
Murray Lake11220241987
Hay Springs11120242018
Murdock11120242018
Berwyn 211120212014

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.