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Species · Kansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Kansas

All statesWetland birds

Red-winged Blackbird in Kansas has edged down: down 20% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-20%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in Kansas. See the full index history below.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Kansas is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 58 in 2025 to a central estimate of 65 (95% range 37–93). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
37–9395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Kansas is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 58 in 2025 to a central estimate of 65 (95% range 37–93). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026673996
2027673995
2028663895
2029663894
2030653793

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Beloit 226820182005
Hodges23320142000
St John22620191967
Covert18820251967
Ash Valley18720192000
Albert17220251967
Missler16920191975
Ulysses14920252000
Solomon13620251982
Beloit10920032000
Berwet9920252000
Damar9520162000
Jewell9220051967
Lakin8820221967
Minneapolis8820191967
Pittsburg8820212000
Susank8820222000
Gray7720191967
Dalton7120251968
Melrose6920231967
Wallace6920221967
Leoville6620181967
Plymell6320252000
Logan6120251967
Leoti6120222000

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.