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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesWetland birds

Red-winged Blackbird in Arkansas has held roughly steady: up 5% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+5%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Arkansas is projected to rise about 29% by 2030 — from 76 in 2025 to a central estimate of 98 (95% range 32–163). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
98Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
32–16395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Arkansas is projected to rise about 29% by 2030 — from 76 in 2025 to a central estimate of 98 (95% range 32–163). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269934164
20279934164
20289833164
20299833163
20309832163

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lafe80820222017
Hickory Ridge77620222010
Maynard58920251967
Ulm58220251986
Augusta 255020162002
West Tyler50819841967
Kelso43720162010
Harrisburg42220191967
Whitton37319911967
Augusta35220011967
Wilson27020251993
Dell15820252010
England13120252010
Eudora9320251967
Gillett8720252010
South Bend6920251967
Hughes6520251967
Centerton2820252010
Compton2620221967
Saffell2120191967
Ravenden Springs1520152010
Havana1420212010
Russell1320212010
Stark1220251967
Zion1020251967

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.