BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Arkansas has edged up: up 18% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+18%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Arkansas is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 81 in 2024 to a central estimate of 100 (95% range 35–165). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
100Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
35–16595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Arkansas is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 81 in 2024 to a central estimate of 100 (95% range 35–165). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
202510236167
202610136167
202710135166
202810035166
202910035165

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lafe80820222017
Hickory Ridge77620222010
Maynard63920241967
Augusta 255020162002
Ulm51920241986
West Tyler50819841967
Kelso43720162010
Harrisburg42220191967
Dell40620242010
Whitton37319911967
Augusta35220011967
Wilson29320241993
England14020242010
Gillett12020242010
Eudora7120241967
Hughes7120231967
South Bend5820231967
Centerton2920242010
Compton2620221967
Saffell2120191967
Ravenden Springs1520152010
Havana1420212010
Russell1320212010
Avoca1020241967
Coal Hill920231967

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.