BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Nevada

All statesGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Nevada has declined: down 33% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-33%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in Nevada. See the full index history below.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Nevada is projected to rise about 104% by 2029 — from 9.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 0.00–42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±133.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+104%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±133.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Nevada is projected to rise about 104% by 2029 — from 9.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 0.00–42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±133.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025190.0041
2026190.0041
2027190.0042
2028190.0042
2029190.0042

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Virgin Creek7620181995
Gardnerville6420121992
Fallon5620241992
Carson River4720052001
Hiko4620231968
Ruby Valley 24520242004
Ruby Valley3520011997
Dinner Sta3119931968
Gardnerville 22620242013
Toiyabe Nf2520241987
Charleston Reservoir2420242024
Oreana2220032002
Fish Creek2020181997
Humboldt Nf 21420242021
Ranchogrande1220241988
Vya1119741972
Meadow Vally1120241996
Dobbin Creek1020181970
Piute Mdws920242013
Majors Place920241968
Sand Pass820241987
Chimney Res.720242005
Midas620241990
Humboldt Nf620191993
Ash Meadows620191993

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.