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Species · Iowa · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Iowa

All statesWetland birds

Red-winged Blackbird in Iowa has held roughly steady: up 4% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+4%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Red-winged Blackbird Trends in IowaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in Iowa. See the full index history below.

Red-winged Blackbird Population Forecast in Iowa

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Iowa is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 160 in 2025 to a central estimate of 181 (95% range 151–211). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
181Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
151–21195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Iowa is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 160 in 2025 to a central estimate of 181 (95% range 151–211). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026180151210
2027181151210
2028181151210
2029181151210
2030181151211

Red-winged Blackbird Survey Routes in Iowa

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Iowa.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mt Hamill40520251967
Cedar Valley36119971967
Festina33620251968
Davis Corner32820251968
Williamsburg32020231967
Bryant28720251967
Hudson27320251967
Prairieburg22320251967
Tipton21320251993
College Spgs21220041967
Maquoketa19720251967
Brooklyn18720251967
Lafayette15720252003
Garner15519931971
Mccallsburg15420251996
West Liberty14420251968
Dinsdale14420251968
Scranton14020251967
Washington13920251967
Pierson13820251968
Burchinal13820251995
Red Rock13520251968
Neola13520251968
Zearing13519951967
Exline13020251974

Red-winged Blackbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.