BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-winged Blackbird In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWetland birds

Red-winged Blackbird in Prairie Potholes has edged up: up 10% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+10%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Red-winged Blackbird In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 166 (95% range 140–192). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
166Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
140–19295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±3.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 166 (95% range 140–192). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026163137190
2027164138190
2028165138191
2029165139191
2030166140192

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA8242025
WimbledonNORTH-DAKOTA8052025
TurtonSOUTH-DAKOTA5902025
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA5432025
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA4832025
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA3772025
MontpelierNORTH-DAKOTA3512025
RoswellSOUTH-DAKOTA3232014
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA3172025
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA3132025
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA2892014
BroadlandSOUTH-DAKOTA2892017
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA2882025
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA2862025
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA2732025
WinsideNEBRASKA2692003
BraddockNORTH-DAKOTA2632023
HarlemMONTANA2612021
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA2472025
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA2202025
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA2182025
Powers LakeNORTH-DAKOTA2162025
CondeSOUTH-DAKOTA2161984
WestbyMONTANA2082025
WorthingtonMINNESOTA2022025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.