BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Prairie Potholes has held roughly steady: up 6% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+6%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 165 (95% range 139–192). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-0%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
165Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
139–19295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 165 (95% range 139–192). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025163136189
2026163137190
2027164137190
2028164138191
2029165139192

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA8532024
WimbledonNORTH-DAKOTA7532024
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA5802024
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA5122024
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA5042024
TurtonSOUTH-DAKOTA5032024
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA3952024
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA3382024
RoswellSOUTH-DAKOTA3232014
BraddockNORTH-DAKOTA2962022
WestbyMONTANA2902024
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA2902024
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA2892014
BroadlandSOUTH-DAKOTA2892017
MontpelierNORTH-DAKOTA2802024
WinsideNEBRASKA2692003
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA2672024
Powers LakeNORTH-DAKOTA2632024
HarlemMONTANA2612021
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA2512024
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA2252024
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA2172024
CondeSOUTH-DAKOTA2161984
BeltramiMINNESOTA2112024
BurchinalIOWA2022024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.