BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-winged Blackbird In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestWetland birds

Red-winged Blackbird in Northern Pacific Rainforest has surged: up 78% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+78%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
110Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has surged in Northern Pacific Rainforest: up 77% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Red-winged Blackbird In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 7.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.6 (95% range 2.5–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 7.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.6 (95% range 2.5–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.92.711
20276.82.611
20286.82.611
20296.72.511
20306.62.511

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MendotaWASHINGTON1121988
AdairOREGON752025
GazelleCALIFORNIA562021
YrekaCALIFORNIA542019
Bay ViewWASHINGTON532017
DaytonOREGON512025
McminnvilleOREGON502025
MontesandWASHINGTON452024
DerbyOREGON441993
South ElmaWASHINGTON432024
Emigrant Lake 2OREGON422025
NavarroCALIFORNIA302011
Nicolai Mtn.OREGON282025
SalemOREGON282025
CarnationWASHINGTON282025
Warm BeachWASHINGTON272017
Port AngelesWASHINGTON232025
CanbyOREGON212025
ScappooseOREGON202025
RaymondWASHINGTON202021
Warm Beach 2WASHINGTON182024
Mendota 3WASHINGTON172025
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA162025
Emigrant LkOREGON162001
GarfieldOREGON152025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.