BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Northern Pacific Rainforest has risen sharply: up 72% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+72%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
110Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has risen sharply in Northern Pacific Rainforest: up 72% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Red-winged Blackbird In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 8.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.6 (95% range 2.4–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.4–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 8.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.6 (95% range 2.4–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.92.711
20266.82.611
20276.72.511
20286.72.511
20296.62.411

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MendotaWASHINGTON1121988
DaytonOREGON842024
AdairOREGON582024
Nicolai Mtn.OREGON572024
GazelleCALIFORNIA562021
YrekaCALIFORNIA542019
Bay ViewWASHINGTON532017
MontesandWASHINGTON452024
DerbyOREGON441993
South ElmaWASHINGTON432024
McminnvilleOREGON342024
SalemOREGON332024
NavarroCALIFORNIA302011
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA282024
Warm BeachWASHINGTON272017
Mendota 3WASHINGTON222024
Port AngelesWASHINGTON212024
CarnationWASHINGTON212024
Emigrant Lake 2OREGON202024
RaymondWASHINGTON202021
EverettWASHINGTON192024
Warm Beach 2WASHINGTON182024
Emigrant LkOREGON162001
MukilteoWASHINGTON162024
Hay ForkCALIFORNIA142017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.