BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Atlantic Northern Forest has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-73%Since 1968
151Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Red-winged Blackbird has fallen sharply in Atlantic Northern Forest: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 80% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-80%Change by 2029
2.8Projected 2029 index
0.00–1495% range
±63.8%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20255.10.0017
20264.50.0016
20274.00.0015
20283.40.0015
20292.80.0014

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Atlantic Northern Forest.
WatervilleVERMONT611980
Number FourNEW-YORK592016
FletcherVERMONT572024
East HavenVERMONT502024
New HartfordCONNECTICUT481987
W RutlandVERMONT432024
BiddefordMAINE412019
S WallingfrdVERMONT412022
HardwickVERMONT412024
BentonMAINE391980
HarmonyMAINE372024
CheshireMASSACHUSETTS371994
TurnerMAINE362010
KasoagNEW-YORK362024
HighmarketNEW-YORK362024
MontereyMASSACHUSETTS352024
StoweVERMONT332024
WashburnMAINE302005
Dixville Notch 2NEW-HAMPSHIRE302024
Dixvil NotchNEW-HAMPSHIRE292017
PittsfieldMASSACHUSETTS282016
JeffersonMAINE262010
Ft FairfieldMAINE242005
St DavidMAINE242005
CornvilleMAINE242024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.