BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Atlantic Northern Forest has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-73%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
151Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has fallen sharply in Atlantic Northern Forest: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-winged Blackbird In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 80% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-80%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±63.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 80% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.10.0017
20264.50.0016
20274.00.0015
20283.40.0015
20292.80.0014

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WatervilleVERMONT611980
Number FourNEW-YORK592016
FletcherVERMONT572024
East HavenVERMONT502024
New HartfordCONNECTICUT481987
W RutlandVERMONT432024
BiddefordMAINE412019
S WallingfrdVERMONT412022
HardwickVERMONT412024
BentonMAINE391980
HarmonyMAINE372024
CheshireMASSACHUSETTS371994
TurnerMAINE362010
KasoagNEW-YORK362024
HighmarketNEW-YORK362024
MontereyMASSACHUSETTS352024
StoweVERMONT332024
WashburnMAINE302005
Dixville Notch 2NEW-HAMPSHIRE302024
Dixvil NotchNEW-HAMPSHIRE292017
PittsfieldMASSACHUSETTS282016
JeffersonMAINE262010
Ft FairfieldMAINE242005
St DavidMAINE242005
CornvilleMAINE242024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.