BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has collapsed: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-90%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
99Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has collapsed in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-winged Blackbird In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±125.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±125.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±125.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.005.9
20260.000.005.9
20270.000.005.9
20280.000.005.9
20290.000.005.9

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mer RougeLOUISIANA2032008
CypressLOUISIANA511987
NatchitochesLOUISIANA371991
Derry 2LOUISIANA332024
DerryLOUISIANA281989
FillmoreLOUISIANA241989
PhillipsOKLAHOMA222008
De QuincyLOUISIANA192021
McalesterOKLAHOMA161991
HavanaARKANSAS142021
IndianolaOKLAHOMA142024
Chandler 2TEXAS142024
PocolaOKLAHOMA122016
CanadianOKLAHOMA102017
Powell ParkTEXAS102012
Coal HillARKANSAS92023
MatoyOKLAHOMA92000
ChandlerTEXAS92004
BlakelyARKANSAS81999
StarkARKANSAS82024
EastonLOUISIANA81990
ManyLOUISIANA81992
SandbluffOKLAHOMA81995
Locust BayouARKANSAS72022
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA72021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.