BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-winged Blackbird In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasWetland birds

Red-winged Blackbird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has collapsed: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-89%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
100Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has collapsed in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-winged Blackbird In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 3.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±137.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±137.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 3.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±137.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.006.0
20270.000.006.0
20280.000.006.0
20290.000.006.0
20300.000.006.0

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mer RougeLOUISIANA2032008
CypressLOUISIANA511987
Derry 2LOUISIANA492025
NatchitochesLOUISIANA371991
DerryLOUISIANA281989
FillmoreLOUISIANA241989
MatoyOKLAHOMA202025
De QuincyLOUISIANA192021
McalesterOKLAHOMA161991
PhillipsOKLAHOMA162025
Easton 2TEXAS152025
HavanaARKANSAS142021
Chandler 2TEXAS142024
StarkARKANSAS122025
PocolaOKLAHOMA122016
IndianolaOKLAHOMA112025
CanadianOKLAHOMA102017
Powell ParkTEXAS102012
Coal HillARKANSAS92023
ChandlerTEXAS92004
BlakelyARKANSAS81999
EastonLOUISIANA81990
ManyLOUISIANA81992
Locust BayouARKANSAS72022
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA72021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.