BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-winged Blackbird In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesWetland birds

Red-winged Blackbird in Badlands and Prairies has held roughly steady: up 2% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+2%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
140Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Red-winged Blackbird In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 38% by 2030 — from 85 in 2025 to a central estimate of 52 (95% range 31–74). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-38%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
31–7495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 38% by 2030 — from 85 in 2025 to a central estimate of 52 (95% range 31–74). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026533174
2027533174
2028523174
2029523174
2030523174

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glen UllinNORTH-DAKOTA18482025
WyarnoWYOMING5062025
SeelyWYOMING2492000
Cedar PassSOUTH-DAKOTA2352025
BentleyNORTH-DAKOTA2302024
LodgepoleSOUTH-DAKOTA2162025
VolunteerSOUTH-DAKOTA2122025
CarsonNORTH-DAKOTA1932025
Winifred 2MONTANA1852025
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA1842025
LacreekSOUTH-DAKOTA1842025
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA1692025
RockyfordSOUTH-DAKOTA1642025
IsabelSOUTH-DAKOTA1592015
Ft YatesNORTH-DAKOTA1542004
Seely 2WYOMING1452025
Eagle ButteSOUTH-DAKOTA1402015
WinifredMONTANA1242023
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA1242025
PromiseSOUTH-DAKOTA1242015
WebsterMONTANA1192025
HardingSOUTH-DAKOTA1182025
HayesSOUTH-DAKOTA1182024
Miles CityMONTANA1122025
Gvnt ValleyWYOMING1092025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.