BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Badlands and Prairies has edged down: down 10% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-10%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
139Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Red-winged Blackbird In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 56 in 2024 to a central estimate of 50 (95% range 30–69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
30–6995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 56 in 2024 to a central estimate of 50 (95% range 30–69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025503170
2026503170
2027503070
2028503070
2029503069

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LacreekSOUTH-DAKOTA2702023
SeelyWYOMING2492000
Cedar PassSOUTH-DAKOTA2352023
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA2322024
BentleyNORTH-DAKOTA2302024
LodgepoleSOUTH-DAKOTA1992024
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA1712024
CarsonNORTH-DAKOTA1672024
Seely 2WYOMING1652024
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA1602024
IsabelSOUTH-DAKOTA1592015
WyarnoWYOMING1582024
Ft YatesNORTH-DAKOTA1542004
RockyfordSOUTH-DAKOTA1442023
Eagle ButteSOUTH-DAKOTA1402015
DaytonWYOMING1362024
Glen UllinNORTH-DAKOTA1342022
WinifredMONTANA1242023
PromiseSOUTH-DAKOTA1242015
HayesSOUTH-DAKOTA1182024
OttumwaSOUTH-DAKOTA1152022
VolunteerSOUTH-DAKOTA1022019
ArdmoreSOUTH-DAKOTA1022019
Winifred 2MONTANA1002024
Dinosaurs H.M.MONTANA972024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.