BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has held roughly steady: down 1% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-1%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
129Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 73 in 2024 to a central estimate of 65 (95% range 47–82). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
47–8295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 73 in 2024 to a central estimate of 65 (95% range 47–82). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025654883
2026654783
2027654783
2028654783
2029654782

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BrownleeNEBRASKA3862024
Wheeler CoNEBRASKA3272024
HunterOKLAHOMA3172024
KennedyNEBRASKA2742024
Beloit 2KANSAS2682018
SumnerNEBRASKA2352024
HodgesKANSAS2332014
St JohnKANSAS2262019
ChambersNEBRASKA2032023
NenzelNEBRASKA1902024
Ash ValleyKANSAS1872019
MisslerKANSAS1692019
TableNEBRASKA1692024
CovertKANSAS1672024
AlbertKANSAS1642024
SurpriseNEBRASKA1402024
Piester LakeNEBRASKA1372024
BerwetKANSAS1332024
JohnstownNEBRASKA1332024
KenesawNEBRASKA1312024
SargentNEBRASKA1252024
RexfordKANSAS1242024
BoelusNEBRASKA1232022
Berwyn 2NEBRASKA1112021
SolomonKANSAS1102019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.