BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-winged Blackbird In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieWetland birds

Red-winged Blackbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has held roughly steady: up 4% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+4%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
129Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Red-winged Blackbird In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 75 in 2025 to a central estimate of 65 (95% range 47–83). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
47–8395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 75 in 2025 to a central estimate of 65 (95% range 47–83). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026664884
2027664883
2028654883
2029654783
2030654783

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wheeler CoNEBRASKA3912025
HunterOKLAHOMA3172024
BrownleeNEBRASKA2782025
Beloit 2KANSAS2682018
KennedyNEBRASKA2532025
HodgesKANSAS2332014
St JohnKANSAS2262019
SumnerNEBRASKA2082025
SurpriseNEBRASKA2002025
CovertKANSAS1882025
Ash ValleyKANSAS1872019
TableNEBRASKA1812025
AlbertKANSAS1722025
Crescent LkNEBRASKA1702025
MisslerKANSAS1692019
ChambersNEBRASKA1662025
NenzelNEBRASKA1422025
HamptonNEBRASKA1422025
SolomonKANSAS1362025
Swan LakeNEBRASKA1362025
KenesawNEBRASKA1312025
Piester LakeNEBRASKA1312025
BelvidereNEBRASKA1262025
BoelusNEBRASKA1232022
JohnstownNEBRASKA1172025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.