BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has edged down: down 14% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-14%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
183Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau. See the full index history below.

Red-winged Blackbird In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 0.00–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-50%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 0.00–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.80.0021
20267.40.0021
20276.90.0021
20286.50.0020
20296.10.0020

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
YampaCOLORADO2592023
AlamosaCOLORADO1712024
FalfaCOLORADO1512024
DoloresCOLORADO1231987
CastletonCOLORADO1182024
Pagosa SpgsCOLORADO1031982
DoylevilleCOLORADO862024
BufordCOLORADO842024
FruitaCOLORADO812007
FarmingtonNEW-MEXICO741987
PowderhornCOLORADO712023
Angel Fire 2NEW-MEXICO632024
Cortez 2COLORADO622017
Pleasant ViewCOLORADO602021
De BequeCOLORADO592024
LudlowCOLORADO552016
Yellowjacket PassCOLORADO542024
Deadman Rd.COLORADO482024
CokedaleCOLORADO482024
MoffatCOLORADO422024
PaoniaCOLORADO422024
Gribbles PrkCOLORADO402024
AngoraCOLORADO402024
ParlinCOLORADO342023
AztecNEW-MEXICO341989

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.