BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-winged Blackbird In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauWetland birds

Red-winged Blackbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has edged down: down 14% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-14%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
185Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau. See the full index history below.

Red-winged Blackbird In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 55% by 2030 — from 14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 0.00–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-55%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 55% by 2030 — from 14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 0.00–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.80.0021
20277.40.0021
20287.00.0021
20296.50.0020
20306.10.0020

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
YampaCOLORADO2592023
AlamosaCOLORADO2012025
FalfaCOLORADO1652025
Yellowjacket PassCOLORADO1372025
DoloresCOLORADO1231987
Pagosa SpgsCOLORADO1031982
DoylevilleCOLORADO982025
PowderhornCOLORADO952025
CastletonCOLORADO942025
BufordCOLORADO832025
FruitaCOLORADO812007
TarryallCOLORADO812025
FarmingtonNEW-MEXICO741987
PaoniaCOLORADO722025
ParlinCOLORADO632025
Cortez 2COLORADO622017
Pleasant ViewCOLORADO602021
MoffatCOLORADO582025
Deadman Rd.COLORADO522025
Rifle FallsCOLORADO442025
Gribbles PrkCOLORADO432025
De BequeCOLORADO402025
CokedaleCOLORADO362025
Fox CreekCOLORADO352025
Angel Fire 2NEW-MEXICO352025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.