BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Appalachian Mountains has fallen sharply: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-67%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
381Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has fallen sharply in Appalachian Mountains: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-winged Blackbird In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 68% by 2029 — from 25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.0 (95% range 0.00–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-68%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±63.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 68% by 2029 — from 25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.0 (95% range 0.00–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025120.0033
2026110.0032
2027100.0031
20289.10.0030
20298.00.0029

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WintersetOHIO4271983
WarwickNEW-YORK2931974
ArleeWEST-VIRGINIA2581979
PortersvillePENNSYLVANIA2501988
CooperstownNEW-YORK1591977
ChurchvilleVIRGINIA1512024
MifflintownPENNSYLVANIA1392024
CumberlandOHIO1312017
StonecreekOHIO1202024
CattaraugusNEW-YORK1172019
SwainNEW-YORK1152007
CoventryvileNEW-YORK1112023
RalstonPENNSYLVANIA1091978
OxfordNEW-YORK1071976
Mt StormWEST-VIRGINIA1011975
RectorPENNSYLVANIA981977
Little MarshPENNSYLVANIA972024
DrydenNEW-YORK952024
S Berne 2NEW-YORK952024
GainesvilleNEW-YORK882023
DrehersvillePENNSYLVANIA881999
Plesant GrovPENNSYLVANIA872024
McdonoughNEW-YORK852017
Warwick 2NEW-YORK852013
DuvallPENNSYLVANIA852021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.