BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-winged Blackbird In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsWetland birds

Red-winged Blackbird in Tamaulipan Brushlands has fallen sharply: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-60%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has fallen sharply in Tamaulipan Brushlands: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-winged Blackbird In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 102% by 2030 — from 34 in 2025 to a central estimate of 69 (95% range 0.00–196). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±108.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+102%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–19695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±108.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 102% by 2030 — from 34 in 2025 to a central estimate of 69 (95% range 0.00–196). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±108.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026710.00198
2027710.00197
2028700.00197
2029700.00196
2030690.00196

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ProgresoTEXAS6382011
RaymondvilleTEXAS2112025
HeidelbergTEXAS1632024
HondoTEXAS1122025
La PryorTEXAS682017
KingsvilleTEXAS462024
LaredoTEXAS252023
Agua NuevaTEXAS222023
Catarina 2TEXAS212017
CatarinaTEXAS202010
DilleyTEXAS172025
EncinalTEXAS162010
Encinal 2TEXAS132025
SejitaTEXAS132023
MillettTEXAS122012
George WestTEXAS112025
Catarina 3TEXAS102025
GuerraTEXAS72023
ZapataTEXAS51987
Millett 2TEXAS52024
RachalTEXAS32023
Pedro CreekTEXAS32010
Mirando CityTEXAS22025
San YgnacioTEXAS21985
El SauzTEXAS22023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.