BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Tamaulipan Brushlands has fallen sharply: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-55%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has fallen sharply in Tamaulipan Brushlands: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-winged Blackbird In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 72% by 2029 — from 42 in 2024 to a central estimate of 73 (95% range 0.00–200). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±116.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+72%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–20095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±116.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 72% by 2029 — from 42 in 2024 to a central estimate of 73 (95% range 0.00–200). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±116.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025740.00202
2026740.00201
2027730.00201
2028730.00201
2029730.00200

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ProgresoTEXAS6382011
HeidelbergTEXAS1632024
HondoTEXAS1222024
RaymondvilleTEXAS902024
La PryorTEXAS682017
George WestTEXAS482024
KingsvilleTEXAS462024
LaredoTEXAS252023
Agua NuevaTEXAS222023
Catarina 2TEXAS212017
CatarinaTEXAS202010
EncinalTEXAS162010
SejitaTEXAS132023
MillettTEXAS122012
DilleyTEXAS102024
Mirando CityTEXAS92024
Encinal 2TEXAS92024
GuerraTEXAS72023
ZapataTEXAS51987
Millett 2TEXAS52024
RachalTEXAS32023
RandadoTEXAS32024
Catarina 3TEXAS32024
Pedro CreekTEXAS32010
San YgnacioTEXAS21985

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.