BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Gulf Coastal Prairie has declined: down 41% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-41%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in Gulf Coastal Prairie. See the full index history below.

Red-winged Blackbird In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 139 in 2024 to a central estimate of 102 (95% range 7.4–197). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
102Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.4–19795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 139 in 2024 to a central estimate of 102 (95% range 7.4–197). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
202511520210
202611217207
202710914204
202810610201
20291027.4197

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ltl Chenier 2LOUISIANA6312011
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA5412011
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA4592024
Gran ChenierLOUISIANA3881982
IndianolaTEXAS3382024
CreoleLOUISIANA2941987
Forked IslandLOUISIANA2942024
Oyster LakeTEXAS2852024
MauriceLOUISIANA2382024
KaplanLOUISIANA2352023
PetronilaTEXAS2182024
Grand IsleLOUISIANA1652019
MamouLOUISIANA1601982
WoodlawnLOUISIANA1602021
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS1532023
WinnieTEXAS1482024
Rock IslandTEXAS1482024
BaysideTEXAS1432010
Bayside 2TEXAS1282004
Bayside 3TEXAS1282024
EstherLOUISIANA1222024
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA1202019
ChinquapinTEXAS1152024
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS1132024
RichardLOUISIANA1122024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.