BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-winged Blackbird In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieWetland birds

Red-winged Blackbird in Gulf Coastal Prairie has declined: down 46% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-46%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in Gulf Coastal Prairie. See the full index history below.

Red-winged Blackbird In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 118 in 2025 to a central estimate of 100 (95% range 5.5–194). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
100Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.5–19495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 118 in 2025 to a central estimate of 100 (95% range 5.5–194). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
202611218206
202710915203
202810612200
20291038.5197
20301005.5194

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ltl Chenier 2LOUISIANA6312011
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA5412011
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA4732025
Gran ChenierLOUISIANA3881982
IndianolaTEXAS3382024
Forked IslandLOUISIANA3342025
CreoleLOUISIANA2941987
MauriceLOUISIANA2382024
KaplanLOUISIANA2352023
Bayside 3TEXAS2062025
PetronilaTEXAS1912025
EstherLOUISIANA1892025
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS1772025
Rock IslandTEXAS1662025
Grand IsleLOUISIANA1652019
MamouLOUISIANA1601982
WoodlawnLOUISIANA1602021
Oyster LakeTEXAS1602025
BaysideTEXAS1432010
Bayside 2TEXAS1282004
ChinquapinTEXAS1252025
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA1202019
WinnieTEXAS1202025
Sabine Nwr 2LOUISIANA1122017
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS952025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.