BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-winged Blackbird In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieWetland birds

Red-winged Blackbird in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-50%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
278Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has fallen sharply in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-winged Blackbird In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 105 in 2025 to a central estimate of 91 (95% range 58–124). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
91Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
58–12495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±3.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 105 in 2025 to a central estimate of 91 (95% range 58–124). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269764130
20279663129
20289461127
20299360126
20309158124

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LucerneMISSOURI4392025
Mt HamillIOWA4052025
BeaucoupILLINOIS3922025
Cedar ValleyIOWA3611997
Davis CornerIOWA3282025
WilliamsburgIOWA3202023
HarveysburgOHIO3031996
WilmingtonOHIO3021996
HarristownILLINOIS2942025
BryantIOWA2872025
HudsonIOWA2732025
NewarkILLINOIS2672022
PawneeILLINOIS2442025
MarshallILLINOIS2402025
Troy GroveILLINOIS2372025
PontiacILLINOIS2332025
GreenviewILLINOIS2252025
PrairieburgIOWA2232025
WarrenMISSOURI2161984
TiptonIOWA2132025
College SpgsIOWA2122004
MackinawILLINOIS2072025
StillwellILLINOIS2022025
JamestownILLINOIS2002025
Kahoka2MISSOURI2002024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.