BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Shortgrass Prairie has increased: up 39% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+39%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
135Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 43 in 2024 to a central estimate of 49 (95% range 32–65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
32–6595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 43 in 2024 to a central estimate of 49 (95% range 32–65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025483165
2026483165
2027483165
2028483265
2029493265

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WakaTEXAS3732024
HookerOKLAHOMA3372024
Prospect ValCOLORADO2532000
GruverTEXAS2102024
UlyssesKANSAS1732024
BereaNEBRASKA1592019
YoderWYOMING1562024
PaxtonNEBRASKA1472016
ClaytonvilleTEXAS1402022
KermitTEXAS1381994
CrawfordNEBRASKA1372024
Agate 2NEBRASKA1322024
Fort MorganCOLORADO1182024
LingleWYOMING1132024
JulesburgCOLORADO1122021
Murray LakeNEBRASKA1122024
Hay SpringsNEBRASKA1112024
DalhartTEXAS1112024
CactusTEXAS1112024
AmherstCOLORADO892024
LakinKANSAS882022
TwichellTEXAS882023
BrownsonNEBRASKA832021
Sheridan LakCOLORADO822016
DaltonNEBRASKA742024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.