BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-winged Blackbird In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieWetland birds

Red-winged Blackbird in Shortgrass Prairie has risen sharply: up 51% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+51%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
135Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has risen sharply in Shortgrass Prairie: up 51% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-winged Blackbird In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 56 in 2025 to a central estimate of 49 (95% range 33–66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
33–6695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 56 in 2025 to a central estimate of 49 (95% range 33–66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026493266
2027493266
2028493266
2029493266
2030493366

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HookerOKLAHOMA5192025
WakaTEXAS4272025
BereaNEBRASKA3212025
GruverTEXAS2862025
Prospect ValCOLORADO2532000
TwichellTEXAS2322025
YoderWYOMING1912025
CactusTEXAS1612025
PantexTEXAS1572025
UlyssesKANSAS1492025
PaxtonNEBRASKA1472016
Prospect Valley 2COLORADO1402025
ClaytonvilleTEXAS1402022
KermitTEXAS1381994
Murray LakeNEBRASKA1162025
Agate 2NEBRASKA1152025
LingleWYOMING1132024
JulesburgCOLORADO1122021
HudsonCOLORADO962025
AmherstCOLORADO892024
LakinKANSAS882022
Fort MorganCOLORADO822025
Sheridan LakCOLORADO822016
Hay SpringsNEBRASKA732025
Adams Co.COLORADO722022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.