BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Piedmont has collapsed: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-80%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
167Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has collapsed in Piedmont: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-winged Blackbird In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Piedmont is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±118.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±118.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Piedmont is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±118.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.0014
20260.000.0014
20270.000.0014
20280.000.0014
20290.000.0014

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EmmitsburgMARYLAND962024
Croton 2NEW-JERSEY822024
AspersPENNSYLVANIA781989
West GrovePENNSYLVANIA731996
Bachman MillMARYLAND672024
EarltonMARYLAND582024
BendersvillePENNSYLVANIA512024
PendletonSOUTH-CAROLINA501976
OlneyMARYLAND482024
CollegevillePENNSYLVANIA482024
GatchelvillePENNSYLVANIA481990
Pleasant ValMARYLAND452024
PottersvilleNEW-JERSEY392024
LincolntonGEORGIA342017
IjamsvilleMARYLAND342024
MadonnaMARYLAND332022
LabottPENNSYLVANIA331983
RutledgeGEORGIA322024
PottstownPENNSYLVANIA311987
Doe RunPENNSYLVANIA312024
TaylorstownVIRGINIA312010
Bald FriarMARYLAND291996
CrotonNEW-JERSEY292007
LeolaPENNSYLVANIA272024
GilletteNEW-JERSEY262024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.