BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has declined: down 38% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-38%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. See the full index history below.

Red-winged Blackbird In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 51 in 2024 to a central estimate of 64 (95% range 0.00–219). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–21995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 51 in 2024 to a central estimate of 64 (95% range 0.00–219). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025740.00230
2026720.00227
2027690.00224
2028660.00221
2029640.00219

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BrawleyCALIFORNIA14432012
Palo VerdeCALIFORNIA5952024
LagunaARIZONA5672023
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA3632010
NilandCALIFORNIA3612024
ArabyARIZONA3222023
Palo VerdeARIZONA3052013
Alamo RiverCALIFORNIA2152018
Cactus ForestARIZONA1922024
Palo Verde 2ARIZONA1292024
Red Rock 2ARIZONA1012024
Hope 2ARIZONA922018
DatelandARIZONA832024
Casa GrandeARIZONA662023
CoolidgeARIZONA631985
Red RockARIZONA542014
Cibola LakeARIZONA342024
Parker DamCALIFORNIA302007
PearblossomCALIFORNIA262024
HopeARIZONA182009
BlytheCALIFORNIA172003
FlorenceARIZONA161988
Willow Beach 2ARIZONA112018
VicksburgARIZONA81989
Kelso ValleyCALIFORNIA82024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.