BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-winged Blackbird In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsWetland birds

Red-winged Blackbird in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has declined: down 40% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-40%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. See the full index history below.

Red-winged Blackbird In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 80 in 2025 to a central estimate of 61 (95% range 0.00–216). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–21695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 80 in 2025 to a central estimate of 61 (95% range 0.00–216). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026720.00226
2027690.00224
2028660.00221
2029640.00218
2030610.00216

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BrawleyCALIFORNIA14432012
Palo VerdeCALIFORNIA7852025
NilandCALIFORNIA7702025
LagunaARIZONA5672023
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA3632010
ArabyARIZONA3222023
Palo VerdeARIZONA3052013
Palo Verde 2ARIZONA2752025
Cactus ForestARIZONA2632025
Alamo RiverCALIFORNIA2152018
Red Rock 2ARIZONA1012024
Hope 2ARIZONA922018
DatelandARIZONA912025
Casa GrandeARIZONA662023
CoolidgeARIZONA631985
Red RockARIZONA542014
PearblossomCALIFORNIA382025
Cibola LakeARIZONA342024
Parker DamCALIFORNIA302007
HopeARIZONA182009
BlytheCALIFORNIA172003
FlorenceARIZONA161988
Willow Beach 2ARIZONA112018
Lone PineCALIFORNIA92025
VicksburgARIZONA81989

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.