BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-winged Blackbird In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesWetland birds

Red-winged Blackbird in Northern Rockies has held roughly steady: down 9% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-9%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
207Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Red-winged Blackbird In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 7.5–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.5–2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 7.5–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026167.925
2027167.825
2028167.725
2029167.625
2030167.525

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BridgeportOREGON2212025
Pablo Res.MONTANA1782025
SpartaOREGON1502025
Crane CreekIDAHO1302019
BasinWYOMING1212025
RaynesfordMONTANA1072025
Neponset ResUTAH1062018
HarmonyWYOMING1012025
Clyde ParkMONTANA932025
MeeteetseWYOMING902025
WoodruffUTAH842025
EtheteWYOMING832025
Seedskadee 2WYOMING832024
UnityOREGON812025
RandolphUTAH812025
Willow Creek 2MONTANA782025
NaplesIDAHO742025
CodyWYOMING742025
TensleepWYOMING732025
Church HillMONTANA712025
GrangevilleIDAHO691986
OchocoOREGON601982
RiversideWYOMING592025
NowoodWYOMING582025
Mtn ViewWYOMING562024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.