BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Northern Rockies has held roughly steady: down 8% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-8%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
203Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-winged Blackbird in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 7.3–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.3–2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 7.3–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025167.725
2026167.625
2027167.525
2028167.425
2029167.324

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BridgeportOREGON3282022
HarmonyWYOMING2462023
Pablo Res.MONTANA2192024
Clyde ParkMONTANA1422024
SpartaOREGON1322001
Crane CreekIDAHO1302019
OttoWYOMING1122024
Neponset ResUTAH1062018
RandolphUTAH1022024
Big SandyWYOMING992024
WoodruffUTAH912024
EtheteWYOMING902024
TensleepWYOMING852024
MeeteetseWYOMING842024
Seedskadee 2WYOMING832024
RaynesfordMONTANA752024
Willow Creek 2MONTANA712024
GrangevilleIDAHO691986
CodyWYOMING682024
MidvaleWYOMING682024
GlenMONTANA622024
OchocoOREGON601982
EllistonMONTANA562024
Mtn ViewWYOMING562024
RiversideWYOMING542024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.