BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Sierra Madre Occidental has collapsed: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-81%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has collapsed in Sierra Madre Occidental: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Red-winged Blackbird In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 52% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.77 (95% range 0.00–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-52%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.77Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 52% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.77 (95% range 0.00–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.00.005.1
20260.970.005.0
20270.900.004.9
20280.840.004.9
20290.770.004.8

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
McnealARIZONA92017
Clay SpringARIZONA82012
MaineARIZONA72024
Skull ValleyARIZONA72024
AlpineARIZONA72023
Carr MtnARIZONA62024
PomereneARIZONA42024
SunizonaARIZONA41997
Sunizona 2ARIZONA42024
Mormon LakeARIZONA31975
PrescottARIZONA22018
PatagoniaARIZONA22000
CutterARIZONA21995
Happy JackARIZONA22022
RuckerARIZONA21995
Aztec PeakARIZONA11978
BlueARIZONA11984
San SimonARIZONA12008
Peña BlancaARIZONA12024
WilliamsARIZONA12019
Forest LakesARIZONA12000
PinetopARIZONA12021
RedingtonARIZONA12016
AmadoARIZONA12009
SprucedaleARIZONA12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.