BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-winged Blackbird In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalWetland birds

Red-winged Blackbird in Sierra Madre Occidental has collapsed: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-80%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has collapsed in Sierra Madre Occidental: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Red-winged Blackbird In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 43% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.72 (95% range 0.00–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-43%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.72Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 43% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.72 (95% range 0.00–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.990.005.0
20270.920.004.9
20280.850.004.9
20290.790.004.8
20300.720.004.7

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Skull Valley 2ARIZONA142025
WilliamsARIZONA92025
McnealARIZONA92017
AlpineARIZONA82025
Clay SpringARIZONA82012
Skull ValleyARIZONA72024
Carr MtnARIZONA62024
SunizonaARIZONA41997
Sunizona 2ARIZONA42024
Mormon LakeARIZONA31975
PrescottARIZONA22018
PomereneARIZONA22025
PatagoniaARIZONA22000
CutterARIZONA21995
Happy JackARIZONA22022
RuckerARIZONA21995
Aztec PeakARIZONA11978
BlueARIZONA11984
San SimonARIZONA12008
Peña BlancaARIZONA12024
MaineARIZONA12025
Forest LakesARIZONA12000
PinetopARIZONA12021
RedingtonARIZONA12016
AmadoARIZONA12009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.