BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Sierra Madre Occidental has collapsed: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-81%Since 1970
25Routes In Region
55Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Red-winged Blackbird has collapsed in Sierra Madre Occidental: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 52% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.77 (95% range 0.00–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-52%Change by 2029
0.77Projected 2029 index
0.00–4.895% range
±36.4%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.00.005.1
20260.970.005.0
20270.900.004.9
20280.840.004.9
20290.770.004.8

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Sierra Madre Occidental.
McnealARIZONA92017
Clay SpringARIZONA82012
MaineARIZONA72024
Skull ValleyARIZONA72024
AlpineARIZONA72023
Carr MtnARIZONA62024
PomereneARIZONA42024
SunizonaARIZONA41997
Sunizona 2ARIZONA42024
Mormon LakeARIZONA31975
PrescottARIZONA22018
PatagoniaARIZONA22000
CutterARIZONA21995
Happy JackARIZONA22022
RuckerARIZONA21995
Aztec PeakARIZONA11978
BlueARIZONA11984
San SimonARIZONA12008
Peña BlancaARIZONA12024
WilliamsARIZONA12019
Forest LakesARIZONA12000
PinetopARIZONA12021
RedingtonARIZONA12016
AmadoARIZONA12009
SprucedaleARIZONA12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.