BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-winged Blackbird In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainWetland birds

Red-winged Blackbird in Southeastern Coastal Plain has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-61%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
336Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has fallen sharply in Southeastern Coastal Plain: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-winged Blackbird In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 83% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.00–9.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-83%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–9.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±70.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 83% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.00–9.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.10.0012
20273.60.0011
20283.00.0011
20292.50.0010
20302.00.009.8

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FoleyALABAMA981984
ShilohGEORGIA962025
LovedaleFLORIDA812011
ShilohKENTUCKY812025
RowlandNORTH-CAROLINA792024
BethanyGEORGIA742025
TibbsTENNESSEE722025
MansfieldTENNESSEE722025
CottonGEORGIA702025
DarienGEORGIA662019
BostonGEORGIA662025
Boykin Ml PdSOUTH-CAROLINA641968
MaconMISSISSIPPI632025
HumboldtTENNESSEE612025
DillonSOUTH-CAROLINA602021
HendersonGEORGIA582025
OwensboroGEORGIA532025
WalthallMISSISSIPPI521987
FitzgeraldGEORGIA462025
FinleysonGEORGIA452025
Johns IsleSOUTH-CAROLINA451979
Alabama Pt 2ALABAMA442019
WadleyGEORGIA432025
WeberGEORGIA412025
PhilemaGEORGIA402025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.