BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Southeastern Coastal Plain has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-63%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
335Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has fallen sharply in Southeastern Coastal Plain: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 83% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.00–9.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-83%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–9.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±63.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 83% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.00–9.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.10.0012
20263.60.0011
20273.00.0011
20282.50.0010
20291.90.009.6

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FoleyALABAMA981984
ShilohGEORGIA852024
HumboldtTENNESSEE832024
LovedaleFLORIDA812011
RowlandNORTH-CAROLINA792024
MansfieldTENNESSEE792024
FitzgeraldGEORGIA732024
TibbsTENNESSEE732024
WeberGEORGIA692024
MaconMISSISSIPPI672024
DarienGEORGIA662019
BostonGEORGIA642024
Boykin Ml PdSOUTH-CAROLINA641968
DillonSOUTH-CAROLINA602021
FinleysonGEORGIA572024
HendersonGEORGIA542024
NewtonGEORGIA522024
WalthallMISSISSIPPI521987
CottonGEORGIA492024
OwensboroGEORGIA482024
Johns IsleSOUTH-CAROLINA451979
Alabama Pt 2ALABAMA442019
BentonMISSISSIPPI392024
Bon SecourALABAMA382023
BlountstownFLORIDA362024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.