BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-winged Blackbird In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGeneralists

Red-winged Blackbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has fallen sharply: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-62%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has fallen sharply in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 43% by 2029 — from 76 in 2024 to a central estimate of 43 (95% range 7.2–78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-43%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.2–7895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 43% by 2029 — from 76 in 2024 to a central estimate of 43 (95% range 7.2–78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025511687
2026491485
2027471283
2028459.480
2029437.278

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
N VictoryNEW-YORK2721972
WatertownNEW-YORK2372012
GarrettsvileOHIO2371991
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK2342024
MacdougallNEW-YORK2112024
HinesburgVERMONT2071994
AkeleyPENNSYLVANIA2031979
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK1922024
West SenecaNEW-YORK1582004
CayugaNEW-YORK1552024
OrleansNEW-YORK1482024
RomulusNEW-YORK1462000
HiramOHIO1372021
E YoungstownNEW-YORK1352023
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA1322023
CloverPENNSYLVANIA1222024
CastileNEW-YORK1102024
WaylandOHIO1032017
PittsfieldOHIO962024
Alder CreekNEW-YORK922004
NaplesNEW-YORK922024
PeruOHIO921978
LucerneOHIO892024
BranchportNEW-YORK862024
BristolVERMONT862018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.