BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-winged Blackbird In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainWetland birds

Red-winged Blackbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has fallen sharply: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-60%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-winged Blackbird has fallen sharply in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-winged Blackbird In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 44% by 2030 — from 76 in 2025 to a central estimate of 43 (95% range 6.9–79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-44%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.9–7995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-winged Blackbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 44% by 2030 — from 76 in 2025 to a central estimate of 43 (95% range 6.9–79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026511587
2027491385
2028471183
2029459.081
2030436.979

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Red-winged Blackbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
N VictoryNEW-YORK2721972
WatertownNEW-YORK2372012
GarrettsvileOHIO2371991
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK2342025
HinesburgVERMONT2071994
AkeleyPENNSYLVANIA2031979
MacdougallNEW-YORK1752025
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK1632025
CayugaNEW-YORK1602025
West SenecaNEW-YORK1582004
E YoungstownNEW-YORK1472025
RomulusNEW-YORK1462000
CastileNEW-YORK1312025
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA1182025
OrleansNEW-YORK1172025
NaplesNEW-YORK1162025
WaylandOHIO1032017
DuanesburgNEW-YORK1012025
PittsfieldOHIO962024
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK942025
Alder CreekNEW-YORK922004
PeruOHIO921978
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA912025
BranchportNEW-YORK862024
Ballston LkNEW-YORK831995

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.